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Education  >  Fundamental Analysis
Monday,  28 March 2011,  03:20 GMT
AceTrader
AceTrader Research Team
Trendsetter Financial Markets Limited
Daily FX Market Outlook By AceTrader 28-3-2011

Euro tumbles after downgrade of Portugal's credit rating and hawkish comments from Fed's Plosser
Euro tumbles after downgrade of Portugal's credit rating and hawkish comments from Fed's Plosser

The single currency briefly dipped to 1.4150 in Australia on Friday after the downgrade of Portugal's credit rating by two rating agents, Fitch and S&P's respectively and then rebounded briefly to 1.4194 at European opening before falling to as low as 1.4055 in late U.S. session after hawkish comments from Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser who said the U.S. economy is on a firmer footing and the U.S. central bank will have to reverse its loose monetary policy in the 'not-too-distant future' to avoid sowing the seeds of inflation.   
  
Plosser told reporters following a speech at a Shadow Federal Open Market Committee event that   
the Fed must be careful not to fall “behind the curve” on inflation. He added “I worry about us being behind the curve.”   
  
Portuguese 10-year government bond hit post euro-era high at 7.984% and the widening of 10-year Portuguese/German 10-year government bond yield spread by 472 basis points pressured the euro in Europe. Portugal will need to refinance about 4.5 billion euros of debt in April and then a similar amount in June.   
  
Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker said in a German radio 'no one should underestimate the reform of The Stability Pact'. Juncker added 'he doesn't expect Portugal to seek emergency help.' German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Portugal's commitment to fiscal consolidation targets is essential to calm financial markets and both the Lisbon government and opposition must be clear on them.   
  
On the data front, German Feb. Ifo business climate index came in at 111.1 versus street forecast of 110.5 whilst current condition was 115.8 versus the expectation of 114.7.   
  
U.S. final Q4 GDP was 3.1% versus economists' forecast of 3.0% and previous reading of 2.8%. U.S. PCE price index rose by 1.7% against consensus of 1.8%. U.S. University of Michigan final March consumer sentiment fell to 67.5 from the preliminary reading of 68.2.  
  
In other news on the 2-day EU summit, Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council said the meeting was an accomplishment after European leaders made an agreement on Thursday to increase their financial rescue fund to the full 440 billion euros by June instead of by end of this month, however, they avoided discussion of Portugal which is under pressure to seek a bailout after Portuguese PM Jose Socrates tendered his resignation when the Lisbon Parliament voted against his party's austerity measures plan.   
  
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said that it was crucial for Portugal to stick to the fiscal austerity measures Socrates had proposed. EU diplomats said Socrates had privately reassured other leaders that no matter what sort of government emerges after new elections, it would stick to the austerity programme.  
  
The British pound nose-dived from Tuesday's 14-month high of 1.6403 to as low as 1.6008 in late U.S. session on dollar's broad-based strength after the hawkish comments from Plosser.   
  
Australian dollar rallied to a fresh 29-year high of 1.0294 on active cross-buying in aussie especially versus the single currency and the Japanese yen. The greenback also rose against the Japanese yen from 80.87 to 81.50.  
  
Data to be released next week:  
  
German retail sales, U.S. personal spending, personal income, PCE index and pending home sales on Monday.  
  
Japan's unemployment rate and retail sales, German CPI, HICP prelim., Gfk index, U.K. GDP and current account, U.S. SnP/CS home price and consumer confidence on Tuesday.  
  
Japan's industrial production, EU business climate, economic, industrial and consumer sentiment, Swiss KOF indicator, U.K. CBI distribution trade and U.S. ADP employment on Wednesday.  
  
U.K. Gfk survey, Japan's housing starts and construction orders, German unemployment change and unemployment rate, EU HICP flash, U.S. jobless claims, Chicago PMI, durable goods (revised) and factory orders on Thursday.  
  
Japan's Tankan big manufacturing and capex, Swiss retail sales and PMI, German manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI and unemployment rate, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, construction spending and ISM manufacturing on Friday.   
GMT:
21:21
London:
21:21
Tokyo:
05:21
Sydney:
06:21
New York:
16:21 







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