We hit our support target at 1.5817 to the pip and had a little bounce before the FED minutes.   Then the minutes pushed it down to 1.5800.   This is very close to our little trendline too.  We have more big earnings days ahead with large banks posting dismal numbers, which could cause the Fed to open the discount window a little more?   Is this window big enough though yet?   And how many people will potentially have access to it, and will this cause hyper-inflation without an interest rate hike in sight?   These are the big picture questions that should be answered by the FED.   Just how much money can be printed, and how fast will monetary policy tighten in the near future?   Big predicament!!!   Considering these statements we remain long term bullish with this pair.  

Entries are only made when price action confirms a break in support or resistance!   It’s easy to jump in and take a position but waiting for the right time and calculating the allocation to expose is most important.   Support at this moment is the 1.5800 zone with hard support lying on 1.5817.   Price should find more support at 1.5650 – 1.5685 if our trendline and previous congestion of 1.5765 – 1.5800 is broken.   Those are basically the downside risks with the upside being wide open if the opportunity is presented.   Fundamentally, the EU just raised rates and seems to be controlling inflation; and the U.S. – has more downside risk as stated by the FED chairman today.   The tech’s need to give us a sign now.

We’re in a channel, but the break to parity (1.0000) has now retraced to previous support – now resistance (1.0200 zone).   As this pair correlates well with EUR/USD, it should be significant if price breaks out of the channel.    1.0260 is the 100 day SMA offering us a point of hard resistance, upside risk, if achieved.   The support side is 1.000!!!   Once there is a close below 1.0000 then we expect a further test of lows at 0.9635 with first hard support at 0.9875.

Nice upswing today testing previous support of 105.80.   From there we should see some selling.   104 is support.   I don’t have a lot to add here today, just long term bearish due to the break from the 6 month channel on Tuesday.   My best advice is to watch the markets tomorrow for the earnings from the large banks.