The Euro has fallen to the area we had expected it to fall to.   This should confirm some nice congestion with a bullish move to re-test 1.5775, which was previous support.    The bearish move looks to be quite gassed (nice pun J ) and is due for the bulls to make their moves tomorrow.   Just how far and how long the bears will allow it to go, who knows.   Bulls should be looking for risk to be below 1.5600.

Is everyone happy that the carry looks to have resumed?   This pair needs to push to 108.56 in order to establish itself as STRONG resistance.   If, however, 108.56 is removed then it could improve market sentiment and possibly have a psychological rally.   If there is a failure then the obvious will set in and another fall could be warranted.   Now that the price has broke above the 200 day (1 day chart) SMA and convincingly so, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 108.56 is broken and it runs to 110.   For the bears, the upside risk is above 108.56.  The bulls have to watch out for falling below 107.   As you can see on the weekly chart we are hitting critical resistance and should be quite volatile in future sessions.    

I hate gloating or having satisfaction in being right.   This analysis isn’t for me though; it’s for all the traders out there.   We hit our upside target to the pip and are confirmed in our channel.   It’s possible to see a bearish move now as the price looks to be cheap.   Bullish risk should be below the 1.0289 level.   Bearish risk is quite nice as it should be above the channel.