Happy Monday!  Welcome to the beginning of the trading week.   Last week’s movements created a short term trendline that was broken today and then came back up to it to find resistance.   The resistance (1.4800) was also 50% retracement and has now found support (1.4745) at the 23.6% fib level.   There looks to be some bearish pressure moving forward and could fall to 1.4615, which follows fib price targets.   If 1.4600 is broken then 1.4500 is a level that could be full of support and could show a sharp reaction signifying a possible bottom.   There is also the possibility that the current level (1.4745) is support and another little bull move could happen.   Usually when there is support at the 23.6% fib then a bull move could take price to the 76.4% retracement.   That said price is around 1.4760.   Tomorrow is the release of The Fed minutes and should show some volatility.  

Oversold?   We hope today’s chart represents itself to show another potential breakout.   Price is still ranging at last year’s low (1.0886 – 1.10xx) If the 1.10 area is broken and cleared then the levels of 1.13 – 1.15 could be the next area of consolidation.   On the other hand, if today’s low is cleared then a break in the trendlines could occur and a fall to 1.085-75 might be in the near future.   There could then be a bear move back to previous resistance, turned support, of 1.0575.

Bull or Bear?   Who will rule here?   The price action keeps failing to break above the 110.50 level.   The bear needs to break 108.30.   Until either one of these prices are broken the position is neutral and a breakout strategy is optimal at the time.