EUR/USD  1.2587 / 90 EUR/AUD  1.9903 / 07 AUD/USD  0.6324 / 28
USD/JPY  95.96 / 9 EUR/JPY  120.73 / 77 GBP/JPY  143.18 / 26
GBP/USD  1.4924 / 28 EUR/GBP  0.8435 / 39 USD/CAD  1.2676 / 81
USD/CHF  1.2227 / 32 EUR/CHF  1.5391 / 95 All forex charts and rates
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Monday,  13 October 2008,  00:22 GMT
GCI Forex Research
FX Research Desk
GCI Financial
Weekly market recap
EUR

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested bids around the $1.3440 level and was capped around the $1.3785 level. The pair lost about 315 pips last week. Major central banks including the Fed and ECB enacted an emergency 50bps rate cut. The U.S. Treasury may take ownership in some U.S. banks. Group of Seven officials convene in Washington, D.C. this weekend. The Fed created a Commercial Paper Funding Facility. The Fed’s Term Auction Facility will be US$ 900 billion through the end of the year. The G7 meets this weekend and strong language is expected in its communiqué. Some traders expect a temporary blanket guarantee of depositors’ funds.

The ECB called on the EU to enact a coordinated financial stability scheme. The ECB may reduce its 2009 GDP forecast and Germany make take its 2008 growth forecast to 0%. The French government may establish an entity to take over failed banks. ECB officials noted inflation is high but called for a coordinated global intervention.

Data released in the U.S. last week saw weekly initial jobless claims fall 20,000 to 478,000 with continuing claims higher at 3.659 million; August pending home sales rose 7.4% m/m and 8.4% y/y; the U.S. trade gap fell 3.5% to US$ 59.1 billion; and September import prices were off 3.0%.

Data released in the eurozone last week saw the German August trade surplus fall 2.5% y/y; German wholesale September prices were off 0.6% m/m and were up 5.8% y/y; German industrial output climbed 3.4% m/m; EMU-15 GDP growth was confirmed at -0.2% q/q; and German manufacturing orders were up 3.6% m/m.



Tags: EUR/USD

EUR Last week’s high (1) was below the 50.0% retracement of the 1.1638-1.6038 range and last week’s low (2) was above the 61.8% retracement of the same range. The 1.3838/ 1.4253/ 1.4357/ 1.4594/ 1.4717 levels represent upside resistance targets while the 1.3319/ 1.2676 levels represent downside support targets.
JPY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the greenback tested bids around the ¥97.90 level and was capped around the ¥105.15 level. The pair lost about 560 pips last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 9.62% to close at ¥8,276.43. The government may formulate another stimulus package by month’s end. Bank of Japan didn’t cut rates but said it “strongly supports” other central banks’ measures. BoJ cut its assessment of corporate capital spending. BoJ’s Shirakawa cited more “downside risks.” Japan is proposing an IMF-led scheme to use foreign reserves to bail out troubled countries.

Data released in Japan last week saw August core private machinery orders fall 14.5%; the September economy watchers survey fell for the sixth consecutive month to 28.0; the August coincident indicator fell to 100.7; the September M3 money supply was up 0.9% y/y; and September outstanding bank loans were up 1.6% y/y.

The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8357 in the over-the-counter market.
In Chinese news, PBoC reduced its one-year benchmark lending and deposit rates by 0.27%. PBoC pledged to maintain yuan stability.




Tags: USD/JPY

JPY Last week’s high (1) was below the 38.2% retracement of the 124.13-95.71 range and last week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same range. Upside resistance targets remain the 100.90/ 102.42/ 104.27/ 106.57 levels while downside support targets remain the 96.82/ 95.71 levels.
GBP

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6790 level and was capped around the $1.7715 level. The pair lost about 735 pips last week. BoE MPC cut its Bank Rate by 50bps to 4.5%. The U.K. government may invest up to ₤50 billion in the banking system and will guarantee more funds to encourage interbank lending.

Data released in the U.K. last week saw the U.K. goods trade deficit narrowed to -₤8.198 billion; Halifax September house prices fell 1.3% m/m and 12.4% y/y; September shop price inflation fell to 3.6% y/y; Nationwide September consumer confidence fell to 50; and August manufacturing production fell 0.4% m/m and 1.9% y/y.


Tags: GBP/USD

GBP Last week’s high (1) was below the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3682-2.0868 range and last week’s low (2) was below the 50.0% retracement of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.7420/ 1.7820/ 1.8303 levels while downside support targets include the 1.6538/ 1.7418/ 1.7060/ 1.6538 levels.
CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1125 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1485 level. The pair lost about 10 pips last week. SNB reduced its Libor target rate by 50bps.

Data released in Switzerland last week saw the September unemployment rate remain unchanged at 2.4%.


Tags: USD/CHF

CHF Last week’s high (1) was above the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2476-0.9647 range and last week’s low (2) was above the 50.0% retracement of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.1395/ 1.1594/ 1.1808 levels while downside support targets include the 1.1138/ 1.0922/ 1.0879/ 1.0748 levels.
CAD

The Canadian dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.1980 level and was supported around the C$ 1.0810 level. The pair gained about 1,020 pips last week. BoC cut rates by 50bps. Prime Minister Harper faces a difficult election on Tuesday.

Data released in Canada last week saw September housing starts climb to 217,600 and 107,000 new jobs were created in September.


Tags: USD/CAD

CAD Last week’s high (1) was above the 50.0% retracement of the 1.4002-0.9055 range and last week’s low (2) was above the 23.6% retracement of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.2112/ 1.2834 levels while downside support targets include the 1.1528/ 1.1209/ 1.0944 levels.
AUD

The Australian dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.6450 level and was capped around the US$ 0.7735 level. The pair lost about 1,180 pips last week. RBA cut rates by 100bps to 6.0%.

Data released in Australia last week saw September employment rise 2,200 and October inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.4%.

Tags: AUD/USD

AUD Last week’s high (1) was below the 38.2% retracement of the 0.5226-0.9849 range and last week’s low (2) was below the 61.8% retracement of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.6992/ 0.7251/ 0.7537 levels while downside support targets include 0.6317/ 0.5226 levels.
GMT:
20:03
London:
20:03
Tokyo:
04:03
Sydney:
05:03
New York:
15:03 


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Friday,  21 November 2008,  03:41 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Fundamental research
Fundamental Outlook

The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2585 level and was supported around the $1.2470 level. The common currency gained ground on a variety of factors.
Thursday,  20 November 2008,  01:30 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Fundamental research
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The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2770 level and was supported around the $1.2590 level. The common currency moved to intraday highs during the early North American session as traders braced for more potential selling pressure in U.
Wednesday,  19 November 2008,  04:01 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Fundamental research
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The euro moved marginally lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2570 level and was capped around the $1.2685 level. Traders are closely watching congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson today.
Monday,  17 November 2008,  01:19 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Weekly market recap

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested bids around the $1.2385 level and was capped around the $1.2925 level. The pair lost about 115 pips last week. The U.
Sunday,  16 November 2008,  00:56 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Fundamental research
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Thursday,  13 November 2008,  01:24 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Fundamental research
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The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2605 level and was supported around the $1.2475 level. The U.S. dollar went on a tear yesterday after NYMEX crude oil futures for December delivery fell below the $60 level per barrel.

in other categories
Friday,  21 November 2008,  06:01 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Trading signals, forecasts and strategy
Forex and Dow Jones recommended levels
Technical Trading

November 21, 2008 GMT  06:54 EUR/USD Today’s support: - 1.2405(main), where correction is possible. Break would give  1.2377, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.2351.
Thursday,  20 November 2008,  08:00 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Trading signals, forecasts and strategy
Forex and Dow Jones recommended levels
Technical Trading

November 20, 2008 GMT  07:52 EUR/USD Today’s support: - 1.2465(main), where correction is possible. Break would give  1.2453, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.2428.
Tuesday,  18 November 2008,  06:29 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Trading signals, forecasts and strategy
Forex and Dow Jones recommended levels
Technical Trading

November 18, 2008 GMT  06:07 EUR/USD Today’s support: - 1.2577, 1.2532, 1.2490 and 1.2476(main), where correction is possible. Break would give  1.2453, where correction also may be.
Monday,  17 November 2008,  08:12 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Trading signals, forecasts and strategy
Forex and Dow Jones recommended levels
Technical Trading

November 17, 2008 GMT  08:03 EUR/USD Today’s support: - 1.2490 and 1.2476(main), where correction is possible. Break would give  1.2453, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.
Friday,  14 November 2008,  05:04 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Trading signals, forecasts and strategy
Forex and Dow Jones recommended levels
Technical Trading

November 14, 2008 GMT  04:56 EUR/USD Today’s support: - 1.2679 and 1.2642(main), where correction is possible. Break would give  1.2624, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.
Thursday,  13 November 2008,  16:26 GMT
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