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Forex.com
Author: Jane Foley, Research Director
http://www.forex.com

GAIN Capital, the parent company for FOREX.com, is a market leader in the rapidly growing online foreign exchange (forex or FX) industry. Founded in 1999 by Wall Street veterans, GAIN now services clients from more than 140 countries and supports average trade volume of nearly $200 billion per month with its customers and counterparties. The company operates FOREX.com (www.forex.com) one of the largest, best-known brands in the retail forex industry. FOREX.com services individual investors of all experience levels with a full-service trading platform, advanced tools and research, and extensive education and training
Thursday,  12 August 2010,  11:05 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
A renaissance for Eurozone debt worries?

EUR/USD bravely attempted to claw back some of yesterday’s losses in Asian hours.   However, sellers dumped the EUR during the European session as economic data reminded the market that this year’s fiscal and debt issues in EMU have not evaporated.   While most eyes were focused on the Fed at the start of this week, the situation in the European periphery took a turn for the worse.   Attention yesterday was focused on Ireland with the bond spreads vs Bunds blowing out on fears about the mounting costs of the bailout of Anglo Irish bank.

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Tuesday,  10 August 2010,  10:41 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
Attention is on the Fed, but it has been the subtle changes at the ECB that have pushed EUR/USD higher since June.

The USD continued to win back ground in Asian hours as the market digested the possibility that the Fed may not extend its balance sheet any further at this evening’s FOMC.   The fact that the uptrend in EUR/USD has persisted since early June is also likely a factor behind the overnight short-covering in the USD.   It is possible that gains in the USD will be extended further if the Fed does not announce additional steps to stimulate the US economy this evening.   However, it is likely that any further USD gains will be short-lived.

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Monday,  09 August 2010,  11:07 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
All about the Fed...meanwhile German export continue to strengthen

Friday’s payrolls may have been a disappointment but the market is still uncertain as to whether the data represents an ‘appreciable’ weakening in the US economy.   While the market did move towards pricing in a Fed ease in the aftermath of the jobs data there is a strong force of opinion that the Fed is unlikely at this stage to announce significant new policy measures.    This opinion appears to be based both on the notion that the Fed has no incentive to shock the market and on the view that despite the weak labour data, most other economic indicators continue to suggest expansion, albeit at a moderating pace.

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Friday,  06 August 2010,  10:55 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
US Private Payrolls need to hugely disappoint to force the Fed to move, risk trade could be disappointed next week.

Unsurprisingly EUR/USD has traded sideways ahead of the payrolls data.   Given that there is sufficient bearish market rhetoric at present to make it seem as if there is a real risk that the US economy is at risk of tipping back into recession,   the most crucial aspect of today’s data is whether it raises the possibility of a relaunch of QE2 from the Fed, potentially as soon as Aug 10.   To this end the private payrolls aspect of the report should be watched closely.

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Thursday,  05 August 2010,  10:45 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
EUR finds a bid ahead of ECB but payrolls tomorrow likely to contain mkts enthusiasm

Stronger US economic data yesterday served as a reminder that whilst the pace of the US recovery has clearly moderated it remains on an expansionary trajectory.   It is by no means a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will resort to further monetary policy easing and in the absence of a shockingly poor payrolls report tomorrow, it is likely that the Fed will not act on August 10.   The USD was able to claw back additional ground vs the EUR early in the London session with the gains extending to the 1.

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