EUR/USD  1.3666 / 66 EUR/AUD  1.4961 / 66 AUD/USD  0.9131 / 32
USD/JPY  90.538 / 51 EUR/JPY  123.72 / 75 GBP/JPY  136.09 / 14
GBP/USD  1.5030 / 33 EUR/GBP  0.9090 / 91 USD/CAD  1.0271 / 74
USD/CHF  1.0695 / 96 EUR/CHF  1.4617 / 18 All forex charts and rates
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Forex.com
Author: Jane Foley, Research Director
http://www.forex.com

GAIN Capital, the parent company for FOREX.com, is a market leader in the rapidly growing online foreign exchange (forex or FX) industry. Founded in 1999 by Wall Street veterans, GAIN now services clients from more than 140 countries and supports average trade volume of nearly $200 billion per month with its customers and counterparties. The company operates FOREX.com (www.forex.com) one of the largest, best-known brands in the retail forex industry. FOREX.com services individual investors of all experience levels with a full-service trading platform, advanced tools and research, and extensive education and training
Thursday,  11 March 2010,  11:14 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
Chinese CPI at 16 mth highs, but JPY unwinds most of overnight safe haven flow. Cable higher.

The overnight releases of Chinese PPI and CPI failed to garner the excitement they had promised, with Asian stocks managing a mixed performance.   CPI did print a 16 mth high of 2.7% y/y but at these levels the rise in inflation can still be deemed as relatively moderate (CPI hit 8.7% y/y in 2008).   That said the strength of Chinese loan data suggest that inflationary risks are firmly bias to the upside and have been sufficient to trigger speculation that CPI will rise above the 3% gov’t target in the months ahead and bring forward a BoC rate hike potentially into Q2 .

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Wednesday,  10 March 2010,  12:20 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
Stering in the limelight again. Chinese exports and imports surge. Aud higher, JPY lower.

Sterling again stole the limelight this morning.   After a weak start (which took it down to USD1.4888) on the back of yesterday’s warnings from Moody’s on the banking sector, cable found support as PM Brown gave an address on the economy.   With only weeks to go before the general election (favoured to be May 6), Brown acknowledged the need to address the budget deficit suggesting that senior civil servants will have their wages frozen and stressing that the UK will not lose its AAA credit rating.

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Tuesday,  09 March 2010,  11:38 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
Mkt will demand improved fiscal controls from EMU. Sterling on the back foot. JPY likely volatile this mth

Yesterday’s austerity pledges by the Portuguese Finance Ministry may have been timed to deflect speculation that the country could be the next most vulnerable EMU member after Greece.   However, the pledges were insufficient to stop Fitch stating this morning that Portugal may be downgraded if fiscal consolidation is insufficient.   The EUR took a tumble on this news falling back towards the USD1.3580 level.   Even though Fitch also stated that the contagion risk to Portugal and Spain from Greece is not great, there are sufficient worries in the market concerning EMU to keep the EUR on the back foot.

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Monday,  08 March 2010,  12:03 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
Risk appetite wanes in Europe; Greece moves away from the abyss but fiscal issue could weigh on the EUR long-term

Risk appetite wilted in European hours.   Enthusiasm for risk during Asian hours was built around the positive implications from last Friday’s US payrolls report in addition to the indications from President Sarkozy that the Eurozone is ready to help Greece if needed.   EUR/USD reached an intraday high of 1.3701 in early European trading but subsequently pushed down towards USD1.3630.   While last week’s oversubscribed Greek bond sale and the passing by the Greek parliament of an addition EUR4.

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Friday,  05 March 2010,  11:29 GMT
Research  >  Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
A stay of execution for Greece. China's Wen confirms loose fiscal policy. Yen lower on BoJ talk. NFP awaited

The very strong demand for yesterday’s Greek bond sale has bought a stay of execution for Greek assets this morning. EUR/USD is trading off its lows, the 10 yr Greek-Bund yield spread is toying with the 300 bps level, in the middle of the range for the week.   The results of the Greek auction were not all good for the government; the higher costs associated with issuing debt might rightly reflect the additional risk that investors perceive but the addition costs will only compound the difficulties associated with reducing the budget deficit.

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