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Thursday,
11 March 2010,
11:14 GMT
Research
>
Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
Chinese CPI at 16 mth highs, but JPY unwinds most of overnight safe haven flow. Cable higher.
The
overnight releases of Chinese PPI and CPI failed to garner the excitement they
had promised, with Asian stocks managing a mixed performance.
CPI did print a 16 mth high of 2.7% y/y but
at these levels the rise in inflation can still be deemed as relatively
moderate (CPI hit 8.7% y/y in 2008).
That said the strength of Chinese loan data suggest that inflationary
risks are firmly bias to the upside and have been sufficient to trigger
speculation that CPI will rise above the 3% gov’t target in the months ahead
and bring forward a BoC rate hike potentially into Q2 .
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Wednesday,
10 March 2010,
12:20 GMT
Research
>
Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
Stering in the limelight again. Chinese exports and imports surge. Aud higher, JPY lower.
Sterling
again stole the limelight this morning.
After a weak start (which took it down to USD1.4888) on the back of
yesterday’s warnings from Moody’s on the banking sector, cable found support as
PM Brown gave an address on the economy.
With only weeks to go before the general election (favoured to be May
6), Brown acknowledged the need to address the budget deficit suggesting that
senior civil servants will have their wages frozen and stressing that the UK
will not lose its AAA credit rating.
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Tuesday,
09 March 2010,
11:38 GMT
Research
>
Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
Mkt will demand improved fiscal controls from EMU. Sterling on the back foot. JPY likely volatile this mth
Yesterday’s austerity pledges by the Portuguese Finance Ministry may have been timed to deflect speculation that the country could be the next most vulnerable EMU member after Greece.
However, the pledges were insufficient to stop Fitch stating this morning that Portugal may be downgraded if fiscal consolidation is insufficient.
The EUR took a tumble on this news falling back towards the USD1.3580 level.
Even though Fitch also stated that the contagion risk to Portugal and Spain from Greece is not great, there are sufficient worries in the market concerning EMU to keep the EUR on the back foot.
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Monday,
08 March 2010,
12:03 GMT
Research
>
Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
Risk appetite wanes in Europe; Greece moves away from the abyss but fiscal issue could weigh on the EUR long-term
Risk appetite wilted in European hours.
Enthusiasm for risk during Asian hours was built around the positive implications from last Friday’s US payrolls report in addition to the indications from President Sarkozy that the Eurozone is ready to help Greece if needed.
EUR/USD reached an intraday high of 1.3701 in early European trading but subsequently pushed down towards USD1.3630.
While last week’s oversubscribed Greek bond sale and the passing by the Greek parliament of an addition EUR4.
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Friday,
05 March 2010,
11:29 GMT
Research
>
Forex - Technical research
Jane Foley, Research Director
A stay of execution for Greece. China's Wen confirms loose fiscal policy. Yen lower on BoJ talk. NFP awaited
The
very strong demand for yesterday’s Greek bond sale has bought a stay of
execution for Greek assets this morning. EUR/USD is trading off its lows, the
10 yr Greek-Bund yield spread is toying with the 300 bps level, in the middle
of the range for the week.
The results
of the Greek auction were not all good for the government; the higher costs
associated with issuing debt might rightly reflect the additional risk that
investors perceive but the addition costs will only compound the difficulties
associated with reducing the budget deficit.
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