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Research 449

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Forex - Fundamental research
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Forex - Currency reports and news

Friday,  17 August 2007,  14:44 GMT
Forex - Fundamental research and GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)


The euro gained ground vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3545 level and was supported around the $1.3370 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.3840 to $1.3360. The Federal Reserve reduced the discount window borrowing rate by +50bps to 5.75%. The Fed reported “To promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets, the Federal Reserve Board approved temporary changes to its primary credit discount window facility. The Board approved a 50 basis point reduction in the primary credit rate to 5-3/4 percent, to narrow the spread between the primary credit rate and the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate to 50 basis points.

• EUR
• JPY, CNY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Thursday,  16 August 2007,  14:52 GMT
Forex - Fundamental research and GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)


The euro moved lower vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3360 level and was capped around the $1.3470 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 50% retracement of the move from $1.2865 to $1.3850. Worsening credit conditions are making for volatile trading conditions in the FX market. News that U.S. mortgage heavyweight Countrywide Financial has tapped US$ 11.5 billion in credit lines on account of not being able to sell its asset-backed commercial paper continues to dominate headlines, spurring speculation that some more U.S. mortgage lenders will close up shop and possibly go bankrupt. The Federal Reserve injected approximately US$ 17 billion in liquidity into the market today, at least US$ 5 billion of which was for fourteen days and not overnight liquidity.

• EUR
• YEN, CNY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Wednesday,  15 August 2007,  14:00 GMT
Forex - Fundamental research and GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)


The euro came off vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3460 level and was capped around the $1.3540 level. Stops were hit below the $1.3485 level, representing the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. The Federal Reserve injected US$ 7 billion in overnight liquidity today, an indication that policymakers still have some concerns about the orderly functioning of the markets and ongoing liquidity issues in the credit markets. One indication of ongoing market nervousness if the fact that US$ Libor remains about +25bps above the Fed’s federal funds target rate of +5.25% and this suggests financial institutions are still paying a premium for U.

• EUR
• YEN, CNY
• GBP
• CHF
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Tuesday,  14 August 2007,  14:00 GMT
Forex - Fundamental research and GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT


The euro came off vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3560 and was capped around the $1.3625 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. Data released in the U.S. today saw July producer price inflation rise 0.6% m/m, more-than-expected, while core prices were up just 0.1%, below expectations. Core PPI prices are up 2.3% y/y, the fastest annual gain since September 2005. These data suggest the Federal Open Market Committee will find it difficult to justify a monetary easing should ongoing credit dislocations warrant same. Also, the U.S. trade deficit receded to a four-month low of -US$ 58.

• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Monday,  13 August 2007,  16:29 GMT
Forex - Fundamental research and GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)


EUR The euro lost ground vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3610 level and was capped around the $1.3705 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. The Federal Reserve injected US$ 2.0 billion of liquidity today, taking its total liquidity injections to US$ 64.0 billion over the last three business days. The New York Fed reported it will evaluate liquidity needs later in the day and is prepared to conduct additional open market operations if needed. Data released in the U.S. today saw June business inventories rise 0.4% while July retail sales were up 0.

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Sunday,  12 August 2007,  16:04 GMT
Forex - Technical research and GCI Forex Research
Weekly market recap, week ahead, and schedule


The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested bids around the $1.3640 level and was capped around the $1.3840 level. The pair lost about 80 pips last week. The FOMC kept the fed funds rate at 5.25% and reported “Although the downside risks to growth have increased somewhat, the FOMC's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected.” The ECB injected €95 billion to support the markets on account of subprime contagion and BNP Paribas suspended three asset-backed securities firms. The Fed injected $24 billion via repos on Thursday, an indication it will assure liquidity conditions remain sufficient, and added another US$ 19 billion on Friday.

• EUR
• YEN/CNY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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