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Research
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Forex - Fundamental research
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Thursday,
04 February 2010,
05:55 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3885 level and was capped around the $1.4025 level. The common currency continues to suffer form a lack of confidence regarding Greece’s fiscal problems. The European Commission formally endorsed a plan that would give Greece until the middle of 2012 to bring its budget gap below 3%. Five-year Greek credit default swaps tightened to 373.6 bps today from 387.3 bps at yesterday’s close. Portuguese debt widened significantly today – leading to further euro weakness – and unconfirmed chatter that Moody’s was imminently downgrading Spain’s sovereign debt also hurt the euro. Data released in the eurozone today saw January services PMI upwardly revised to 52.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
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Thursday,
21 January 2010,
04:00 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4080 level and was capped around the $1.4295 level. Dealers are talking about the victory in the U.S. state of Massachusetts by a Republican in a special Senate election and the impact this will have on the Obama administration’s ability to pass legislation. Banks and financial institutions are trying to repair their balance sheets and the removal of Obama’s filibuster-free legislative ability could be positive for the U.S. dollar. The common currency was also weighed down today by ongoing concerns regarding Greece’s fiscal position. Greek finance minister Papaconstantinou today said the country is “reviewing all options” as to how to raise funds to improve its fiscal position.
• EUR
• JPY
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Tuesday,
19 January 2010,
04:12 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4335 level and was capped around the $1.4395 level. French President Sarkozy was quoted on 7 January as saying the global foreign exchange systemn is in a state of “disorder” and eurozone finance ministers today said Sarkozy “has a point.” G7 finance ministers will convene in northern Canada in early February and are expected to press China to liberalize its exchange rate regime further. The euro remains top-heavy on account of ongoing Greek fiscal problems. Dutch finance minister Bos today said the Greek government will need to address its budget problems without intervention from other European Union members.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Friday,
15 January 2010,
03:40 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4475 level and was capped around the $1.4555 level. As expected, the European Central Bank kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% today and traders will pay close attention to remarks from ECB President Trichet as to when the central bank may next remove some monetary policy accommodation. Data released in the eurozone today saw November EMU-16 industrial production climb 1.0% m/m, up from -0.3% in October, but fell 7.1% y/y – albeit better than expectations. Other data saw German 2009 consumer price inflation print at its lowest level in twenty years despite the upward revision of +0.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
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Friday,
08 January 2010,
05:13 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar on Thursday as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4300 figure and was capped around the $1.4445 level. The common currency moved lower after it was reported that EMU-16 November retail sales were off 1.2% m/m and 4% y/y. These data suggest that final private demand may have weakened ahead of the main holiday shopping period and will not bode well for gross domestic product data in Q4. Other data released today saw the EMU-16 December economic sentiment indicator rose 2.5 points to 91.3 in December, the ninth consecutive monthly gain, while December economic confidence improved to 91.3 from 88.8. Also, German November factory orders were up 0.
• EUR
• JPY
• JPY
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Wednesday,
06 January 2010,
04:33 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar on Thursday as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4345 level and was capped around the $1.4485 level. U.S. equity markets were underwater today and the common currency failed to notch sustainable gains on weaker-than-expected U.S. November pending home sales that failed to meet expectations. Data evidenced a 16.0% m/m contraction, a sharp reversal from the revised +3.9% print in October, and were up 19.3% y/y, down from a revised 28.7% y/y. On a positive note, November factory orders came in stronger-than-expected, up 1.1% - an expansion from October’s +0.8% print. Bond giant PIMCO reported interest rate markets have gotten ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes by the Fed this year.
• EUR
• JPY
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Tuesday,
22 December 2009,
03:15 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4280 level and was capped around the $1.4370 level. Liquidity is expected to remain relatively light through next week as traders prepare for Christmas and the New Year’s holidays. Key economic reports will be released this week and the market could move significantly on account of decreased liquidity. Dealers are still citing lingering effects from Greece’s fiscal crisis and global credit concerns are adding to the U.S. dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency. In recent weeks, the U.S. dollar has benefited despite its negative interest rate differentials versus other currencies.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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