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Forex - Fundamental research
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Thursday,
07 August 2008,
02:05 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily market commentary
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5395 level and was capped around the $1.5515 level. The common currency extended recent losses and reached its lowest level since 16 June. As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.00% yesterday and contrary to much speculation, the only dissenter seeking higher rates was Dallas Fed President Fisher. The FOMC reported “Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.
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Thursday,
31 July 2008,
21:36 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily market commentary
The euro reversed recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5700 figure and was supported around the $1.5570 level. The common currency gave back some intraday gains after the release of U.S. Q2 GDP data that saw the economy expand at an annualized 1.9% pace, up from the downwardly revised 0.9% pace in Q1. The Q2 pace of growth represented the fastest since Q3 2007. Q2 personal consumption expenditures were up 4.2%, up from Q1’s 3.6% pace, while the core PCE price index was up 2.1%, down from 2.3% in Q1 but still above the 2.0% upper limit of the Federal Reserve’s perceived comfort zone. Other U.S. data saw weekly initial jobless claims rise 44,000 to 448,000, the highest level since April 2003, while continuing jobless claims were up 185,000 to 3.
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Wednesday,
30 July 2008,
03:37 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily market commentary
The euro fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5570 level and was capped around the $1.5755 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.5305 to $1.6040. A recovery in U.S. equity prices following yesterday’s meltdown and a decline in NYMEX September crude oil futures for September delivery to the $120 handle saw the common currency yield more ground. Data released in the U.S. saw the S&P/ Case-Shiller May house price index off 15.8% while the July consumer confidence index rose 51.9 from an upwardly revised 51.0 in June. The Bush administration yesterday reduced its GDP growth forecast to 1.
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Wednesday,
23 July 2008,
00:35 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily market commentary
The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5825 level and was capped around the $1.5945 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.5610 to $1.6040. The common currency eroded during the North American session after NYMEX crude oil futures for September delivery slipped nearly $5.00 to the $126 handle. Comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser also sent the euro lower as Plosser reported inflationary pressures are “too high” and said policymakers may need to raise rates “sooner rather than later.” Plosser added he isn’t sure the public’s inflation expectations will remain “well-anchored.
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Saturday,
19 July 2008,
03:22 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily market commentary
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5805 level and was capped around the $1.5885 level. The common currency came off after it was reported that U.S. banking giant Citigroup registered lost less money in the second business quarter than estimated. Citigroup took a charge of US$ 7.2 billion, below the $9.0 billion write-down that was expected. Traders are paying close attention to earnings reports from other U.S. financial institutions, especially during this period of heightened credit market dislocation. In eurozone news, the EMU-15 May trade balance printed at -€4.6 billion, down from April’s surplus of €2.5 billion.
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Friday,
18 July 2008,
01:21 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily market commentary
The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5890 level and was supported around the $1.5810 level. Traders erased some of the common currency’s losses yesterday on concerns it will take a significant amount of time to work through this latest round of credit problems in the U.S. financial sector. The U.S. dollar was also lower on media reports that major sovereign wealth funds have trimmed their exposure to the U.S. dollar. Testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke indicated beleaguered U.S. mortgage giants and GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not in any danger of failing and Bernanke added the containment of inflation remains a “top priority” for the Fed.
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Thursday,
17 July 2008,
00:05 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5865 level and was capped around the $1.5945 level. The common currency extended yesterday’s losses after it established a new lifetime high yesterday. Traders are paying attention to a few key factors. First, there is ongoing concern in the credit markets regarding the health of the U.S. banking sector, especially after the government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an extraordinary move to prevent contagion. Second, crude oil prices continue to recede and NYMEX crude oil futures for August delivery have traded today with a $133 handle. Third, traders are still digesting remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke yesterday in which he reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to containing inflation and stabilizing the financial markets.
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