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Research
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Forex - Fundamental research
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Wednesday,
08 October 2008,
00:58 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3740 level and was supported around the $1.3480 level. The common currency bounced back from yesterday’s sizable losses as the markets remain highly volatile and susceptible to credit-driven dislocations. Traders are eyeing several factors. First, there is some indication that European officials may be inching closer to providing a significant financial bailout of the European banking sector. France today said it will intervene to protect French financial institutions. Second, there is still a lot of talk on trading desks about a coordinated move by global central banks to lower interest rates.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Friday,
03 October 2008,
03:25 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3745 level and was capped around the $1.4030 level. The common currency reached its lowest level since September 2007 as traders reacted to news that the U.S. Senate approved a US$ 700 billion to bail out the troubled U.S. financial system. A similar vote could come in the U.S. House of Representatives tonight or tomorrow. European Union officials rejected talk of an EU bailout plan saying there was no need for one. Several EU leaders will convene in Paris on Saturday. Data released in the U.S. today saw August factory orders fall 4%m the sharpest contraction since October 2006, while the ex-transportation component was off 3.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
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Thursday,
02 October 2008,
07:26 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3975 level and was capped around the $1.4175 level. The common currency reached its weakest level since 11 September as traders speculated the U.S. Senate would pass a US$ 700 billion bailout package for troubled financial institutions later in the day and apply pressure on the House of Representatives to pass similar legislation tomorrow. There are also reports the legislation contains provisions for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to raise its depositor protection to US$ 250,000 from $100,000. Data released in the U.S. today saw ADP September private sector jobs fall 8,000 and August’s payroll tallies were revised to -37,000 from -33,000.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Wednesday,
01 October 2008,
00:21 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4010 level and was capped around the $1.4430 level. Strong gains in U.S. equity markets pushed the common currency lower. U.S. legislators have yet to agree on a final bailout package for troubled U.S. financial institutions and many traders continue to believe a US$ 700 billion deal will be reached by Thursday. President Bush said the economy is at a “critical moment” and needs the legislation passed. U.S. interbank lending rates remain significantly elevated as the federal funds rate opened at 7.0% today, well above the Fed’s current 2.0% target rate. Similarly, the Libor rate on overnight U.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
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Tuesday,
30 September 2008,
03:20 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4300 figure and was capped around the $1.4565 level. The U.S. dollar rocketed as U.S dollar liquidity sharply plummeted around the world on account of the ongoing financial crisis. The Federal Reserve sharply increased the size its 84-day Term Auction Facility and lifted its swap lines with Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Scandinavian central banks. Data released in the U.S. today saw the August Chicago Fed’s manufacturing index fall 2.6% m/m. Also, August consumer spending was unchanged and August personal income was up 0.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
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Friday,
26 September 2008,
02:06 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4585 level and was capped around the $1.4770 level. The markets are quite volatile as traders await the release of details regarding the US$ 700 billion bailout of troubled U.S. financial institutions. Congressional and governmental leaders continue to meet and there is an indication that the US$ 700 billion disbursement may be “phased” in stages to satisfy congressional Democrats. Some dealers are speculating a deal could be announced today while others don’t see a deal being reached before today or Monday. Others believe the US$ 700 billion figure is too high while others believe the US$ 700 billion figure will not be sufficient.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Wednesday,
24 September 2008,
22:08 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4680 level and was capped around the $1.4825 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.2475 to $1.6040. Traders are awaiting details from testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson before the Senate Banking Commission. Many dealers are pessimistic about the U.S. government’s plan to transfer US$ 700 billion in toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets and believe it could require more than US$ 1 trillion to recapitalize the U.S. financial system. Others are asking what would happen if the government bailout fails to achieve its desired results.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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