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Research
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Forex - Fundamental research
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Friday,
16 November 2007,
15:17 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro weakened vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US $1.4605 level and was capped around the $1.4700 figure. The common currency consolidated some of yesterday’s gains Data released in the U.S. today saw October headline consumer price inflation rise 0.3% m/m and 3.5% y/y, unchanged from September’s +0.3% gain, while core prices were up +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y. These data suggest that the spike seen in yesterday’s October PPI data have not yet transmitted through to the consumer price chain, and may afford the FOMC some room to ease monetary policy next month and possibly again in January, especially if the recent spike in energy prices does not result in significant inflation gains.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Wednesday,
14 November 2007,
01:48 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro moved higher vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4630 level and was supported around the $1.4520 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 50% retracement of the recent pullback from $1.4750 to $1.4520. The common currency shrugged off data that saw the German November ZEW expectations index fall to a fifteen-year low of -32.5 from -18.1 in October, much worse-than-expected. The decline in sentiment evidences concerns over the euro’s relative strength, elevated oil prices, and concerns over the U.S. economy. Concerns over this summer’s global credit turmoil have not completely abated in Europe. The European Central Bank expected a liquidity imbalance of €37 billion and only received bids to absorb €27.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Tuesday,
13 November 2007,
06:11 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily Recap
Daily Recap
Global risk aversion rises; high-yielding FX currencies’ recent gains pared
JPY shorts unwound; USD/JPY stops hit below key 110.25
A$ off 200+ pips; trades ignore hawkish RBA Q4 inflation prediction
CHF benefits from reduced risk; EUR/CHF at key 50% 1.6380 retracement level
JPY CGPI accelerates to +2.4% y/y; BoJ inches closer to rate hike
Chinese Oct trade surplus up 13.5% y/y; Q4 GDP and CPI to accelerate
U.K. Oct PPI torrid at 3.8%; traders scale back Dec rate cut odds
USD/CAD bid above 0.9600; 0.9745 next upside target
Day Ahead
More upside JPY risk if Q3 GDP expands; BoJ unlikely to raise rates o/n
U.
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Tuesday,
13 November 2007,
06:07 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated significantly vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4530 level and was capped around the $1.4675 level. Stops were hit below the $1.4575 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.4015 to $1.4750. Liquidity is reduced during the North American session on account of the U.S. Veterans Day holiday in some states and market moves may be exaggerated as a result. Germany’s finance ministry today said “The euro exchange rate is the way it is and there are no grounds for concern.” That comment was in reaction to German media reports over the weekend that a government document noted “further rapid euro appreciation” could “disadvantage” Germany’s economy.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Monday,
12 November 2007,
02:22 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly calendar
Sunday, 11 November 2007
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A NZ October QV house prices
1800 Austria European Central Bank member Liebscher speaks
2350 Japan October domestic corporate goods price index (-0.1% m/m)
2350 Japan October domestic corporate goods price index (1.7% y/y)
2350 Japan September current account (?2.081 trillion)
2350 Japan September trade balance (?892.2 billion)
Monday, 12 November 2007
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia quarterly monetary policy statement
0400 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting
0430 Japan October bankruptcies (1.
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Monday,
12 November 2007,
01:50 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly market recap, week ahed, and schedule
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.4750 level and was supported around the $1.4445 level. The pair gained about 170 pips last week. The resignation of Citigroup chief Prince and $11 billion write-down called into question the extent of the U.S. subprime fallout. Fed Governor Mishkin said the Fed’s role isn’t to bail out Wall Street but to help Main Street. Bernanke said rising oil prices are risking inflation and the Fed would act “as needed” but warned the economy could decelerate in Q4 and H1 2008. Fed funds futures are pricing about a 90% chance the FOMC will ease next month and about a 75% chance the FOMC will ease in January.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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Thursday,
08 November 2007,
03:22 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro strengthened vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4730 level and was supported around the $1.4555 level. The common currency rocketed to a new lifetime high following negative remarks about the U.S. dollar from a Chinese official. Notably, French President Sarkozy said currency “disarray” could lead to an “economic war.” Many traders are wondering if unilateral or multilateral intervention may be implemented to smooth out some of the move in the U.S. dollar. The Bush administration seems to have a hands-off policy regarding the greenback and does not seem to want to stray far beyond its “strong dollar” mantra. Data released in the U.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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