|
Research
>
Forex - Fundamental research
|
13
|
Friday,
26 October 2007,
03:04 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily Recap and a day ahead
Daily Recap
EUR/USD near new high; FOMC rumours and 50bps expectations weigh on USD
Japan’s MoF declares carry trade positions unwound; equities unrest JPY +ve?
USD/JPY at key 114.60/ 113.80 levels (61.8% and 76.4% of Sept-Oct range)
Surprise gains in U.S. Sept new home sales likely a blip amid ongoing turmoil
U.S. core durables shaky for two consecutive months
German Ifo extends lower streak; German gov’t ups 2007 GDP; lowers 2008
Chinese Q3 and Sept data hot: Q3 GDP +11.5% y/y and Sept CPI +6.2% y/y
A$ at new decades-long high; chartists eye 0.9405 upside target
USD/CAD at new decades long-low; chartists eye 0.
Read more >
Friday,
26 October 2007,
00:32 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4345 level and was supported around the $1.4250 level. The common currency came within a couple of pips of establishing a new lifetime high and was pushed higher following a mixed bag of U.S. data. First, September building permits were upwardly revised to -4.6% but these data still evidence weakness in the U.S. housing sector. Second, September new home sales were up 4.8% to 770,000 annualized units, a rare bit of positive data for the beleaguered U.S. housing sector. Third, September new orders for durable goods were off 1.7%, principally on account of a major pullback in defense spending.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD
• CAD
Read more >
Thursday,
25 October 2007,
00:25 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4190 level and was capped around the $1.4265 level. Technically, today’s intraday high and low were right around the 23.6% and 50% retracement of the move from $1.4015 to $1.4395. The common currency moved lower after U.S. financial giant Merrill Lynch wrote down US$ 7.9 billion from earnings on account of subprime mortgage problems and said the conditions remain “uncertain.” This reflects the troubled liquidity conditions faced by global financial firms this summer and to the extent that other U.S. financial institutions are forced to write down earnings, profits will be reduced in upcoming quarters and that will zap demand for U.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
Read more >
Wednesday,
24 October 2007,
08:39 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily Recap and a day ahead
Daily Recap
Risk appetite returns: N225, Hang Seng, DAX, CAC, FTSE, DJIA higher
USD/CAD at new multi-decade low: traders ignore Dodge’s verbal intervention
EUR/USD holds key 1.4160/ 15 levels and tested key 1.4270 area
A$ held key 0.8745 yesterday and tested key 0.8952 today: 0.8999 target
Paulson ups pressure on CNY; PBOC to gradually pursue convertibility
GBP up despite weak CBI survey and dovish chatter from MPC’s Barker
NZD absorbs 0.7514 resistance; 0.7574/ 93 upside objectives
Day Ahead
Oz Q3 CPI could dictate RBA’s move in Nov; > 2.0% y/y bullish
RBNZ likely to keep rates unchanged; 0.7590/ 95 a big target
ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo and Draghi to speak; EUR verbal intervention likely
Sept existing home sales could drag USD lower
JPY crosses at key 23.
Read more >
Wednesday,
24 October 2007,
00:10 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro reversed course and appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4280 level and was supported around the $1.4170 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.3360 to $1.4395. The common currency recovered after yesterday’s sharp moves as global appetite for risk returned to the market. The recent sharp sell-off in global equity markets was broken today. Most traders believe the U.S. dollar’s short-term fortunes will be dictated the FOMC’s interest rate decision and statement on 31 August. Traders are also speculating as to how FOMC policy will materialize in December.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
Read more >
Tuesday,
23 October 2007,
04:49 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily Recap and a day ahead
Daily Recap
G7 shies away from USD and JPY; more teeth in CNY statement
Buba reported German Q3 GDP accelerated; Weber hawkish on inflation
New EUR/USD lifetime high; USD/CHF lowest since 2005
GBP/USD just above key support at 2.0270; eyes 2.0210/ 2.0155
Aussie Q3 PPI up 2.4% y/y; traders eye CPI on Weds and RBA in Nov
Crude tests key support at 84.80; eyes 84.00/ 82.65
Global equities rout extends: N225 off 2.2%; DJIA eyes 13,360
Day Ahead
Trichet likely to remain hawkish; few clues on Nov ECB meeting expected
EUR/USD eyes 1.4045; GBP/USD eyes 2.0155; AUD/USD eyes 0.8585
Turkish-Kurdish tensions underpinning crude despite inventories stock-up
0.
Read more >
Monday,
22 October 2007,
23:10 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro came off vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4135 level and was capped around the $ 1.4350 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.3360 to $1.4395. Today’s intraday high represented a new lifetime high for the pair. The G7’s communique was light on FX references, opting to focus on the yuan instead of the dollar or yen. A draft of the communique was leaked during Friday’s North American session and the euro’s weakness reflects turmoil in global equity markets during the past few sessions. Traders are again preoccupied with recent sub-prime mortgage crisis and U.S. dollar-buying reflects safe-haven activity.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
Read more >
|
1.2587 / 90
