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Forex - Fundamental research
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Monday,
22 October 2007,
00:47 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly calendar
SCHEDULE
Monday, 22 October 2007
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia Q3 producer price index (1.0% q/q)
0130 Australia Q3 producer price index (2.3% y/y)
0500 Japan September supermarket sales (-0.5% y/y)
0700 Japan September convenience store sales (-0.1% y/y)
1130 US Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner speaks
1845 US European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
Tuesday, 23 October 2007
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0645 France September consumer spending (3.6% y/y)
0800 Italy August retail sales (0.
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Monday,
22 October 2007,
00:34 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly market recap, week ahed, and schedule
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.4320 level and was supported around the $1.4145 level. The pair gained about 95 pips last week. Conditions were volatile with traders worried about a Turkish strike in northern Iraq against the Kurds. U.S. housing data continued to crumble. The common currency’s new lifetime higher followed continued concerns over U.S. economic growth and ongoing ECB hawkishness. G7 officials convened in Washington on Friday. Outgoing IMF boss Rato said the “overvalued” dollar is subject to “more depreciation.” Bernanke said the Fed voted to “do more sooner” in easing last month and said housing will remain a “significant drag” on the economy while reiterating the Fed cannot overreact to one-off economic numbers.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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Saturday,
20 October 2007,
16:05 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro came off vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4245 level and was capped around the $ 1.4320 level. Today’s intraday high represents a new lifetime high for the common currency. Traders drove the pair higher on expectations that today’s G7 communique will not make explicit reference to the euro’s relative strength. Countries like France and Italy are known to be critical of the euro’s recent strength while Germany and the U.S. appear more sanguine. The G7’s statement may instead refer to disorderly exchange rates and/ or Asian currency fundamentals. ECB’s Weber said high oil prices are an “upside risk” for inflation and a “downside risk” for economic growth while ECB’s Parama said the ECB cannot permit expectations of mid-term price rises.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Friday,
19 October 2007,
01:00 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily Recap and a day ahead
Daily Recap
EUR/USD new lifetime high; chartists eye $1.4350 target
Weber remains hawkish; Fed Beige Book saw slower growth
USD/JPY: Key 115.25 level tested; 50% of Sep-Oct range; JPY crosses unwind
Chinese Sept CPI blistering at 6.2% y/y; Q3 GDP near 11.5%
GBP/USD at 2.5-month high despite mortgage slowdown; Sept retail sales +ve
CHF strongly bid on risk aversion; Oct ZEW improves
AUD/USD tests key resistance at 0.8965; Kiwi tests key resistance at 0.7560
Day Ahead
G7 communique likely to spotlight CNY; EUR and JPY to be mentioned?
Crude nearing $90.00 on risk premium and inventory draws
German PPI could pose upside EUR risk if hot
U.
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Thursday,
18 October 2007,
09:50 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Daily Recap and a day ahead
Previous Day’s Trading Range
High Low High Low
EUR/ USD 1.4229 1.4206
GBP/JPY 238.80 235.89
USD/ JPY 117.17 116.16
CHF/JPY 99.23 98.34
GBP/ USD 2.0418 2.0285
EUR/GBP 0.6986 0.6960
USD/ CHF 1.1833 1.1777
EUR/CHF 1.6805 1.
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Wednesday,
17 October 2007,
23:19 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro reversed some recent losses vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4230 level and was supported around the $1.4155 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just above the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.4280 to $1.4015. Many data were released in the U.S. today. First, September housing starts plunged 10.2% to an annualized 1.191 million units after falling a revised 3.2% in August. Second, September building permits were off 7.3% to 1.226 million units. Fed Chairman Bernanke was quoted this week as saying housing will continue to be a “significant drag” on the economy, comments that were echoed by Treasury Secretary Paulson.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Wednesday,
17 October 2007,
03:38 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4145 level and was capped around the $1.4225 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 50% retracement of the move from $1.4280 to $1.4015. Many factors were dominant in the market today. First, the common currency came off on news that Turkey’s parliament may positively vote in the next-24 hours to conduct military operations in northern Iraq against the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK). This is a very important development because it can potentially disrupt Iraqi oil exports, leading to higher energy prices and increased risk aversion. Second, Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke last night and said the FOMC voted to “do more sooner” in its most recent 50bps rate cut.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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