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Research
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Forex - Fundamental research
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15
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Tuesday,
16 October 2007,
01:24 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4245 level and was supported around the $1.4160 level. Traders are positioning themselves ahead of Friday’s G7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Washington, D.C. Most dealers believe G7 officials will mention exchange rates in their communique and will focus on the yuan rather than the weakness of the U.S. dollar. Traders also await a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke tonight to see if he yields any clues about the possible outcome of the FOMC meeting on 30-31 October. ECB President Trichet today reiterated his call for “verbal discipline” regarding exchange rates and again warned “there are two-way risks” in the FX markets.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Sunday,
14 October 2007,
11:25 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly calendar
Sunday, 14 October 2007
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
2145 NZ September food prices (-0.1% m/m)
2145 NZ Q3 consumer prices (1.0% q/q)
2145 NZ Q3 consumer prices (2.0% y/y)
2300 NZ September performance of services index
2301 UK October Rightmove house prices (-2.6% m/m)
2301 UK October Rightmove house prices (9.6% y/y)
Monday, 15 October 2007
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Japan Bank of Japan Governor Fukui speaks
0430 Japan August industrial production (3.4% m/m)
0430 Japan August industrial production (4.
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Sunday,
14 October 2007,
11:25 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly market recap, week ahed, and schedule
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.4240 level and was supported around the $1.4015 level. The pair gained about 40 pips last week. FOMC meeting minutes confirmed the Fed will be data-dependent but were less dovish than expected. Fed’s Yellen said the Fed may have been able to have move to a neutral bias. St. Louis Fed’s Poole said the September non-farm payrolls number hasn’t resulted in downside risk.
ECB’s Liikanen hawkishly called for “inflation expectations to remain anchored.” Germany’s Glos is worried by the “weak dollar…especially if it weakens further.” Italy’s Bini Smaghi noted “An exchange rate policy for the euro exists, and so does an institutional mechanism to enact it.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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Thursday,
11 October 2007,
23:59 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4240 level and was supported around the $1.4135 level. Stops were hit above the $1.4220 level, representing the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.4280 to $1.4015. The common currency rocketed higher despite the release of decent U.S. economic data. First, weekly initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 308,000 with continuing jobless claims off 15,000 to 2.521 million. Second, the September import price index was up 1.0% m/m and 5.2% y/y. Third, the U.S. trade balance deficit shrank 2.4% to –US$ 57.59 billion from July’s revised US$ 59.00 billion total. Fifth, it was reported that U.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
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Tuesday,
09 October 2007,
23:20 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro gained marginal ground vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4060 level and was supported around the US$ 1.4015 level. The common currency did not get much of a boost late yesterday following the meeting of eurozone finance ministers who convened to discuss the euro’s appreciation. Finance ministers merely indicated with “great attention” that the U.S. is still officially promoting a strong dollar policy. European Central Bank President Trichet testified today that there is heightened uncertainty in the financial markets but reiterated there are risks of higher inflation. Most traders believe the ECB will remain in a data-dependent mode over the next few months and keep the refinancing rate unchanged absent any additional turmoil in the financial markets.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Tuesday,
09 October 2007,
01:29 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4060 level and was capped around the $1.4150 level. There are two primary reasons why the common currency is consolidating recent gains. First, traders are reassessing the likelihood of additional monetary easing from the Federal Open Market Committee following Friday’s stronger-than-expected September non-farm payrolls report. The federal funds futures market was pricing in more than a 70% change the Fed would reduce interest rates again at its 30-31 October policy-setting meeting but that expectation has fallen to below 60%. Many dealers now believe the worst of the credit and liquidity crisis is behind the markets while others believe the Fed will go on the offensive and reduce borrowing costs again.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Monday,
08 October 2007,
15:35 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly market recap, week ahed, and schedule
The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested bids around the $1.4030 level and was capped around the $1.4060 level. The pair lost about 135 pips last week. Fed Chairman Bernanke said the U.S. housing correction has more room to run and warned that inflationary pressures are escalating. Fed’s Kohn said last month’s 50bps was the first approximation of what needed to be done and added it “will not be able to avert all of the weakness in the economy.” The German media reported the Fed has resisted calls from other countries for joint intervention.
ECB’s Trichet verbally intervened saying U.S. authorities still support a strong dollar. Eurogroup’s Juncker said the strong euro “worries us a lot.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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