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Forex - Fundamental research
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Wednesday,
26 September 2007,
03:12 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
by Forexyard Research
Forexyard Daily (Fundamental)
Yesterday the greenback continued on its bearish path against most of the majors and it slipped to another new record low versus the EUR. The fears that the subprime crisis will spill over into the broader economy and actually begin to slowdown growth rekindled expectations that the Fed will further slash its 4.75 % key benchmark rate. An additional rate cut by the Fed could have a significant negative impact on the greenback as it will reduce the dollars appeal against the high yielding currencies and therefore it will lower the level of foreign investment coming into the US. In the last few weeks the greenback weakened the most against the EUR and this is mainly due to the widening growth differential and the shrinking interest rate differential between the US and the European economy.
• USD
• EUR
• JPY
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Monday,
24 September 2007,
22:33 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro extended recent gains vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4130 level and was supported around the $1.4085 level. The pair established a new lifetime high before consolidating some intraday gains. The move higher in the common currency was partially fueled by expectations the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce interest rates at least another 25bps before the end of the year. Traders await remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke later in the North American session to see if he offers any additional clues about the Fed’s current thinking that were not detailed in the FOMC’s policy statement last week or in his subsequent Congressional testimony.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Monday,
24 September 2007,
01:30 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly Calendar
Sunday, 23 September 2007
all times GMT
0130 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review
Monday, 24 September 2007
0830 UK August public sector net cash requirement (-?13.1 billion)
0830 UK August public sector net borrowing (-?6.5 billion)
0900 Eurozone July industrial new orders (4.4% m/m)
0900 Eurozone July industrial new orders (13.8% y/y)
1300 US Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks
1630 US Federal Reserve official Evans speaks
1700 US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
2350 Japan August Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes
2350 Japan August corporate service price index (1.
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Monday,
24 September 2007,
01:23 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly market recap, week ahed, and schedule
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.4120 level and was supported around the $1.3825 level. The pair gained about 210 pips last week. The common currency eclipsed the psychologically-important US$ 1.40 figure for the first time ever. The FOMC reduced the federal funds target rate by a surprise 50bps to 4.75% and lowered the discount rate by 50bps. The Fed cited the effect of “tightening credit conditions” on the housing market and economic growth. U.S. Treasury’s Paulson said the markets will continue to reprice risk “for a while” but added they are doing so against the backdrop “of a strong global economy.” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were given the capacity to invest US$ 20 billion in subprime mortgages.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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Friday,
21 September 2007,
23:16 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro extended recent gains vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4120 level and was supported around the $1.4040 level. The common currency’s intraday high represented a fresh lifetime high for the pair. There was a dearth of economic data released in the U.S. today. Data released in the U.S. yesterday saw the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s September manufacturing survey improve to 10.9. Fed Chairman Bernanke told Congress the current credit market crisis has created “significant market stress” and reiterated regulators would take steps to limit the effects from the mortgage crisis. Fed Vice Chairman Kohn today said the Fed formulates policy for the macroeconomy but added asset prices play a role in policymaking.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Thursday,
20 September 2007,
22:02 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4070 level and was supported around the $1.3955. The common currency rocketed to a new lifetime high above the psychologically-important $1.4000 figure on speculation that Saudi Arabia is ending its ending the peg between the rial and the U.S. dollar. Notably, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency did not reduce interest rates this week when the Federal Reserve took the federal funds target rate lower by 50bps. Traders believe this may set off a firestorm in the Middle East and could see other oil-rich countries decouple their currencies from the U.S. dollar and ignite more selling pressure.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Wednesday,
19 September 2007,
23:03 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro came off vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3935 level and was capped around the $1.3985 level. Today’s range was limited following yesterday’s significant move higher that saw the common currency establish a new lifetime high and come within fifteen pips of testing the psychologically-important US$ 1.4000 figure. The impetus for the pair’s gains yesterday was a larger-than-expected interest rate reduction by the Federal Open Market Committee that saw the federal funds target rate lowered by 50bps to 4.75%. Most traders expected the FOMC to reduce rates by 25bps and many Fed-watchers are already anticipating policymakers will lower rates another 25bps this year.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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