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Research
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Forex - Fundamental research
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19
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Tuesday,
11 September 2007,
23:02 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
Forexyard Daily / Economic News
The last week's unexpected weakness in the labor market caused the USD to slump to a 15-year low against six of its most actively traded peers. Yesterday the USD was traded at 1.3808 against the EUR, which is only 0.4% below a record low of the 1.3852 reached in July 24th. The latest weak employment figures proved once again that the housing crisis hasn't been affecting the real estate sector only, but has expanded and now influences other markets as well. Given the circumstances, the Fed is highly expected to lower its benchmark rate by quarter of a point to 5% next week. Moreover, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, driven by the first drop in employment in four years, may even be forced to cut interest rates twice, reaching the 4.
• USD
• EUR
• JPY
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Tuesday,
11 September 2007,
22:55 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro strengthened vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3840 level and was supported around the $1.3775 level. Traders await remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke from Berlin later today. Comments from Fed officials yesterday evidenced a wide range of opinions concerning the effects of the current global credit crunch on the U.S. economy. Fed Governor Mishkin reported that if “heightened uncertainty” leads to further pullbacks in household and business spending, “it poses an important downside risk to economic activity.” The Federal Open Market Committee convenes one week from today and many traders believe the Fed will reduce the federal funds target rate by up to 50bps.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Monday,
10 September 2007,
21:37 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro strengthened vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3815 level and was supported around the $1.3765 level. The common currency reached its strongest level since 8 August as traders continued to react to Friday’s weak U.S. August non-farm payrolls report that saw 4,000 jobs lost last month and sizable downward revisions to June’s and July’s tallies. Also, positive remarks from multiple European Central Bank officials over the weekend and today emboldened the common currency further. ECB President Trichet indicated there are strong indications the global economy will continue to expand despite the global credit crisis and said “"We will certainly remain alert at the global level.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Monday,
10 September 2007,
11:42 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
Forexyard Daily / Economic News
The USD dropped massively on Friday upon the release of the US Job's report, and in particular because of the extremely negative -4K figure of the Change in Nonfarm Payrolls.
As could be easily predicted, investors and economists did not try to speculate or change their trading strategy on the present USD trend and continued to massively short the USD. The previous release was 68K, as the market expected 110K.
Today, there is no market moving news expected to come from the US, as the only release will be US Consumer Credit which is expected to go down from 13.2B to 8.8B, and will probably not cause a major price movement in the USD.
The U.S. economic development is in serious difficulty.
• USD
• EUR
• JPY
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Monday,
10 September 2007,
00:40 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly market recap, week ahed, and schedule
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.3795 level and was supported around the $1.3550 level. The pair gained about 140 pips last week. Traders continued to speculate as to what the FOMC will do and say on 18 September. The Fed’s Beige Book saw a “limited” impact of the current credit crunch on the economy outside of housing. Anecdotal August retail sales evidence suggests strong results. A contraction in U.S. August jobs growth and 81,000 downward revision to June’s and July’s tallies will up the Fed’s ante. Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart, Dallas Fed’s Fisher, and St. Louis Fed’s Poole talked up the U.S. economy before the jobs numbers were released.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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Friday,
07 September 2007,
17:34 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro strengthened vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3775 level and was supported around the $1.3665 level. The common currency rocketed to its highest level since 9 August after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. August non-farm payrolls data that saw 4,000 jobs lost last month – a stark contrast to expectations for about 110,000 in new jobs creation. Additionally, the combined jobs growth for June and July were downwardly revised by 81,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.6% and average hourly earnings were up +0.3%. Today’s jobs numbers will likely increase the pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the federal funds target rate when policymakers convene on 18 September.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Wednesday,
05 September 2007,
16:21 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
Forexyard Daily / Economic News
Yesterday, the most significant news to be released from the US was the ISM figures which both released slightly weaker than expected. This should have further bolstered expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Fed; however the market is tentative ahead of some key economic data releases later this week. Yesterday's trading began slowly with the greenback pulling back some ground against the majors. Equities also began to rise moderately and this was reflected in an increase in the USDJPY pair. However the greenback experienced a whipsaw reaction on the back of the weak ISM data and it gradually slip to its current levels against the majors. Although the ISM was poor there was still relatively light movement as the market is waiting for further information in order to accurately asses the probability of a rate cut by the Fed.
• USD
• EUR
• JPY
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