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Research
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Forex - Fundamental research
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2
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Saturday,
12 July 2008,
11:03 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5945 level and was supported around the $1.5765 level. The common currency is within striking distance of testing its all-time high around the $1.6020 level, established on 22 April. A rebound in prices for NYMEX crude oil futures for August delivery to the $147 handle pushed the dollar lower as did a further meltdown in U.S. equity prices. Shares in mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac deteriorated further as investors waited to see if these government sponsored enterprises would be bailed out by the government or Federal Reserve. Data released in the U.S. today saw June import prices up 2.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Thursday,
10 July 2008,
01:14 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro recovered some recent lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5745 level and was supported around the $1.5650 level. The common currency retraced most of yesterday’s losses as traders reacted to news that Iran had test-fired nine missiles overnight, some of which were capable of reaching Israel. NYMEX crude oil futures for August delivery re-tested the $138 handle on the news. The pair was also bid higher on hawkish rhetoric from European Central Bank officials. ECB’s Ordozez reported there is a risk of an inflation wage spiral while ECB’s Trichet reported “In the wake of renewed sharp commodities price increases, (inflation) arrived at the worrying levels of around 4.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Tuesday,
08 July 2008,
03:00 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5610 level and was capped around the $1.5705 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just above the 50% retracement of the move from $1.5300 to $1.5910. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Yellen reported U.S. monetary policy is “nearing a crossroads” and added “The risks to inflation are likely not symmetric and they have definitely increased. We cannot and will not allow a wage-price spiral to develop.” President Bush verbally intervened on the dollar saying “The U.S. believes in a strong dollar policy and believes that the strength of our economy will be reflected in the dollar.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Thursday,
03 July 2008,
00:50 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5885 level and was supported around the $1.5775 level. The common currency reached its highest level since 24 April as traders positioned themselves ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate decision and press conference from the European Central Bank. Most traders expect the ECB will lift its main refinancing rate target by 25bps to 4.25% and the real question involves what exactly ECB President Trichet will say after the decision is announced. ECB policymakers have recently intimated tomorrow’s likely hike will probably be a one-off tightening but recent inflation data in the eurozone has only gotten hotter and changes are increasing that the ECB will have to move again before the end of the year.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Thursday,
26 June 2008,
01:14 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5535 level and was capped around the $1.5615 level. Most traders expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 2.00% today and signal that inflation poses more of a threat than a slowdown in economic growth. Some traders believe the FOMC will move rates higher this year while others believe the Fed will take a wait-and-see approach before adjusting borrowing costs. The Fed is also expected to acknowledge the beleaguered U.S. housing sector, ongoing credit market dislocations, and weakness in the employment sector. Data released in the U.S. today May durable goods orders unchanged m/m and off 0.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Tuesday,
27 May 2008,
00:52 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5790 level and was supported around the $1.5740 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.6020 to $1.5280. Liquidity was reduced today on account of market holidays in the U.K. and U.S. Traders will pay close attention to Germany’s consumer price inflation data scheduled to be released tomorrow followed by the flash EMU-15 May CPI rate on Friday. Some economists’ estimates suggest eurozone inflation may have reached 3.6% this month, up from 3.3% in April. A print this strong will all but force the European Central Bank to remain hawkish in its monetary policy stance.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Tuesday,
20 May 2008,
23:52 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5680 level and was supported around the $1.5505 level. The common currency reached its highest level since 28 April as crude oil futures traded above the US$ 129 figure for the first time ever. Data released in the U.S. today saw the April producer price index rise 0.2% m/m while core inflation was up 0.4% m/m and 3.0% y/y – the largest change since December 1991. Traders will now focus on consumer price inflation data to determine if inflation is filtering through the supply chain from the wholesale level. Federal Reserve Governor Kohn today said “the most likely scenario over the next year or so is one in which economic activity firms during the second half of this year and then gathers some strength in 2009.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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