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Forex - Fundamental research
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Tuesday,
04 September 2007,
16:34 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
Forexyard Daily / Economic News
As the US market was closed yesterday for the labor's day holiday no news was released from the US and movements in the market were still an echo of Ben Bernanke's speech on Friday. The President of the US Fed spoke on Housing, Housing Finance, and Monetary Policy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Investors understood his concerns of mortgage market developments and their "possible implications for the broader economy" as a sign for a rate cut, furthermore the "deterioration in financial market conditions and the tightening of credit since its August 7 meeting had appreciably increased the downside risks to growth". The announcement of ISM Manufacturing Index today and Non-farm employment change on Friday will indicate further if this rate cut will already occur in the September FOMC Meeting.
• USD
• EUR
• JPY
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Tuesday,
04 September 2007,
15:26 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro moved lower vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3550 level and was capped around the $1.3625 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just below the 50% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. Traders are readying for this Friday’s August non-farm payrolls data in the U.S. with most forecasts focusing on job growth around 110,000 workers. A weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls number will add to the view that the recent global credit slump and job losses in the U.S. mortgage industry are impacting the overall economy more-than-expected. The most likely scenario remains a 50bps reduction in the federal funds target rate by the Federal Open Market Committee on 18 September.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Monday,
03 September 2007,
16:13 GMT
GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro moved lower vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3610 level and was capped around the $1.3655 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.3840 to $1.3360. Liquidity was reduced on account of the U.S. Labour Day holiday. Traders are still talking about remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke on Friday in which he indicated the Fed “is prepared to act” to counter disorderly market functioning and minimize the economic impact from the subprime mortgage meltdown. The Federal Open Market Committee will vote on interest rates in 18 September and is expected to reduce the federal funds target rate.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
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Monday,
03 September 2007,
02:45 GMT
GCI Forex Research
Weekly Calendar (GCI Financial)
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 2 September 2007
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Australia August performance of manufacturing index (57.4)
2350 Japan Q2 capital spending (13.6%)
Monday, 3 September 2007
all times GMT
N/A Australia Reserve Bank of Australia meets
0030 Australia August TD securities inflation (0.6% m/m)
0030 Australia August TD securities inflation (3.0% y/y)
0130 Japan July cash labour earnings (-0.9% y/y)
0130 Japan July overtime earnings (0.5% y/y)
0130 Australia August ANZ job advertisements (-0.5% m/m)
0130 Australia July building approvals (7.
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Friday,
31 August 2007,
18:42 GMT
GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro moved higher vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3720 level and was supported around the $1.3625 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just below the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.3840 to $1.3360. Traders bid the common currency higher in Australasian and European dealing on expectations that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke may not make market-friendly comments about the U.S. housing sector at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Jackson Hole today. Bernanke was quoted as saying the Fed “stands ready to take additional actions as needed” to limit “adverse affects” on the broad economy from the recent liquidity meltdown.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
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Thursday,
30 August 2007,
16:01 GMT
GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro lost ground vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3641 level and was capped around the $1.3679 level. Many data will be released in the U.S. and eurozone over the next couple of days before the end of the month. Traders will pay very close attention to Q2 GDP data in the U.S. along with core personal consumption expenditures and weekly jobless claims today followed by personal income and spending data tomorrow. Market participants are very curious to see how the recent found of job cuts in the U.S. financial markets have impacted non-farm payrolls growth in August. Those data will be released next week and could underscore the severity of the shakeout in global credit prices.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Thursday,
30 August 2007,
14:06 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
Forexyard Daily / Economic News
Yesterday the greenback continued on its bearish decent as it lost ground against most of the majors. Earlier in the week investors were expecting the FOMC minutes to give some indication as to when the Fed will cut rates, however the FOMC minutes did not reveal much and this created uncertainty in the market of whether the Fed is actually planning to cut rates. There was no significant economic news released from the US yesterday, so the bearish momentum that was created by the discrete FOMC minutes continued throughout yesterdays trading. The main market movement today can be attributed to the US equity markets rebound after Teusday's large sell off. This caused the USD to weaken sharply against the high yielder's as carry trades were back in action but on the other hand the carry trade winding caused the USD to gain some lost ground against the JPY, so it was not all doom and gloom for the greenback.
• USD
• EUR
• JPY
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