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Research
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Forex - Fundamental research
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Tuesday,
28 August 2007,
15:50 GMT
GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro lost ground vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3615 level and was capped around the $1.3680 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.2865 to $1.3850. The Federal Reserve injected US$ 2.0 billion in temporary reserves through overnight repurchase agreements today. The common currency came off following comments from European Central Bank President Trichet who indicated the central bank could forego a rate hike next month if financial markets become volatile again. Most traders believe the ECB will lift its main refinancing rate by +25bps to 4.25% by the end of the year. Data released in the U.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Tuesday,
28 August 2007,
09:43 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
Forexyard Daily / Economic News
Existing home sales released yesterday align with expectations at 5.75M and only slightly below the previous value of 5.76M, there was only a slight reaction from the market because the value was already anticipated by investors. Despite a low release of Existing Home Sales and with the difficulties in the US housing market, New Home Sales rose last week substantially from 846K to 870K. We are getting mixed signals from the housing market this month as the New Home Sales release surprised on the upside while there was a fall in the decreasing Housing Starts and Building Permits figures. Today the data for US Consumer Confidence will be released with an expected value of 104.8, which is below the previous value of 112.
• USD
• EUR
• JPY
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Tuesday,
28 August 2007,
01:31 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
The euro lost ground vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3650 level and was capped around the 1.3685 level. Liquidity was reduced during the European session on account of a bank holiday in London. French President Sarkozy called on the financial markets to exercise more transparency and continues to call on the European Central Bank to not tighten credit, contrary to most traders’ expectations for next month’s meeting. Most dealers believe policymakers will lift the overnight call rate by +25bps in September. Data released in the U.S. today include July existing home sales and traders will pay close attention to see how the current mortgage liquidity crisis may be impacting the U.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Monday,
27 August 2007,
11:18 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
27/Aug - Economic News
Last week was characterized with a relatively empty US calendar aside from the Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales which were released on Friday. Both figures beat expectations, boosting the major U.S. stock indices. The U.S. Durable Goods Orders was released at 5.9%, showing its biggest growth since September, while New Home Sales rose by 2.8%. The strong New Home Sales figures helped to calm market nerves, but despite strong U.S. economic data, the USD fell against most major currencies on Friday. In fact, traders are speculating that losses on sub-prime mortgages are still growing and the housing crisis probably won't be over any time soon.
As for this week, the US calendar will be quite full with major events, starting today with the US Existing Home Sales.
• USD
• EUR
• JPY
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Monday,
27 August 2007,
02:28 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly Calendar (GCI Financial)
SCHEDULE
all times GMT (last release in parentheses)
Sunday, 26 August 2007
1500 Japan Bank of Japan Governor Fukui speaks
Monday, 27 August 2007
N/A UK Financial markets closed
1300 Hungary European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
1400 US July existing home sales (5.75 million)
1400 US July existing home sales (-3.80% m/m)
1500 China Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Muto speaks
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes, July
Tuesday, 28 August 2007
0000 Australia June leading index (0.
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Saturday,
25 August 2007,
03:04 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
Economic News
Yesterday the Unemployment Claims data was published in the US. The Labor Department reported that new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 322,000. Fewer people signed up for jobless benefits last week. This data signals a positive sign in the US market, taking in consideration the last major difficulties in the US market; housing, tighter credit, and turmoil on Wall Street in recent weeks, which caused a big wave of layoffs. National employment remained fairly study despite job losses related to the deep housing slump, which has persisted for more than a year. The unemployment rate did edge up to 4.6 percent in July, a six-month high. Yet, the rate is still low by historical standards.
• USD
• EUR
• JPY
• Technical News
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Friday,
24 August 2007,
15:10 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro strengthened vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3640 level and was supported around the $1.3555 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 50% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. Data released in the U.S. today saw May new orders for durable goods climb 5.9% with the ex-transportation component up 3.7%, well above expectations. Also, core capital goods orders ex-defense and ex-aircraft were up 2.2%. Other data released today saw July new homes sales up +2.8%, positive data that may help to assuage some fears regarding the condition housing market credit crunch. Moreover, July building permits were upwardly revised to -1.
• EUR
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• GBP
• CHF
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