|
Research
>
Forex - Fundamental research
|
6
|
Tuesday,
27 May 2008,
00:52 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5790 level and was supported around the $1.5740 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.6020 to $1.5280. Liquidity was reduced today on account of market holidays in the U.K. and U.S. Traders will pay close attention to Germany’s consumer price inflation data scheduled to be released tomorrow followed by the flash EMU-15 May CPI rate on Friday. Some economists’ estimates suggest eurozone inflation may have reached 3.6% this month, up from 3.3% in April. A print this strong will all but force the European Central Bank to remain hawkish in its monetary policy stance.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
Read more >
Tuesday,
20 May 2008,
23:52 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5680 level and was supported around the $1.5505 level. The common currency reached its highest level since 28 April as crude oil futures traded above the US$ 129 figure for the first time ever. Data released in the U.S. today saw the April producer price index rise 0.2% m/m while core inflation was up 0.4% m/m and 3.0% y/y – the largest change since December 1991. Traders will now focus on consumer price inflation data to determine if inflation is filtering through the supply chain from the wholesale level. Federal Reserve Governor Kohn today said “the most likely scenario over the next year or so is one in which economic activity firms during the second half of this year and then gathers some strength in 2009.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
Read more >
Friday,
16 May 2008,
00:06 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5545 level and was supported around the $1.5450 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.6020 to $1.5280. Many data were released in the U.S. today. First, net long-term TIC flows rose to US$ 80.4 billion in March from February’s total of US$ 72.5 billion while the monthly net TIC flows component saw an net outflow of US$ 48.2 billion compared with a net inflow of $48.9 billion in February. The March U.S. trade balance registered US$ 58.21 billion. Second, it was also reported that the New York State Empire manufacturing index fell to -3.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
Read more >
Tuesday,
22 April 2008,
04:09 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro notched gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5945 level and was supported around the $1.5790 level. The common currency regained much of the ground it lost on Friday and a few factors contributed to the pair’s gains. First, Bank of America – the U.S.’s largest retail bank – announced a 77% decline in first quarter net income and recorded at least US$ 1.91 billion in write-downs. The dollar fell on this news on broad concerns that the U.S. financial sector still has a tremendous amount of write-downs related to credit losses that have yet to be announced. Many economists believe it could take several more quarters to remove credit-related problems from banks’ balance sheets.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
Read more >
Monday,
07 April 2008,
00:24 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Weekly market recap, week ahed, and schedule
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested bids around the $1.5510 level and was capped around the $1.5895 level. The pair lost about 55 pips last week. The Bush administration announced a sweeping overhaul of the financial services industry, giving the Fed broad new powers. Fed boss Bernanke warned the economy may enter a recession in H1 and said the Fed is prepared to enact more policy measures. May fed funds futures see either a 50bps or 75bps rate cut on 30 April. Fed Governor Miskhin again voiced support for inflation targets. San Francisco Fed President Yellen warned the economy “could contract” in H1. G7 policymakers will likely talk down FX volatility next week.
• EUR
• JPY, CNY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
Read more >
Thursday,
31 January 2008,
02:52 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4820 level and was supported around the $1.4755 level. The common currency reached its highest level since 16 January. The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the federal funds target rate by 50bps to 3.00% and reduced the discount rate by 50bps to 3.50%. Policymakers reported “Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
Read more >
Tuesday,
08 January 2008,
02:53 GMT
GCI Forex Research
by FX Research Desk
Fundamental Outlook
The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4660 level and was capped around the $1.4755 level. Stops were hit below the $1.4700 figure, representing the 23.6% retracement of the run-up from $1.4310 to $1.4825. G10 central banks convened in Basel today and ECB’s Trichet said global economic growth remains “quite robust” but cited some downside risks including elevated commodity, food, and oil prices. Trichet reiterated there is no room for “complacency” against inflation and said there is “danger of second-round effects on headline inflation.” Data released in the eurozone today saw the EMU-13 economic sentiment indicator fall to 104.
• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• AUD, NZD
• CAD
Read more >
|
1.3408 / 11
0.6431 / 35
