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Research  >  Forex - Technical research 197

Wednesday,  29 August 2007,  15:17 GMT
GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)


The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3660 level and was supported around the $1.3560 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 50% retracement of the move from $1.3260 to $1.3850. Traders paid close attention to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes from their 7 August policy deliberations in which officials discussed the possible need for “a policy response” if financial markets turmoil continued. Policymakers noted “the adjustment in the housing sector could well prove to be both deeper and more prolonged than had seemed likely earlier this year.” Regarding the recent moderation in inflation, policymakers retained a hawkish bent saying “The data on core inflation received during the intermeeting period were favorable, but FOMC members believed that the readings for the past few months likely had been damped by transitory factors and did not provide reliable evidence that the recent level would be sustained.

• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
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Tuesday,  28 August 2007,  09:47 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
Forexyard Daily / Technical News


EUR/USD The volatility has increased and Bollinger bands are widened. The pair seems to be consilidating around the1.3625 after yesterdays drop from the 1.3682 mark. On the 4 H chart both momentum and the RSI are both giving strong indication that the pair will range trade today. However there is a flag formation appearing and if this pair breaks the 1.3600, then we may see another move downwards. GBP/USD The cable has been on steady fall in the last 24 hours, sliding from 2.0186 to the 2.0154 mark. However the hourlies are indicating that we are now in oversold territory as the RSI is at the 20 mark and momentum is bullish. On the 4 H chart the bullish formation is weak so we should see this pair make a slight correction possibly leveling out at the 2.

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Monday,  27 August 2007,  11:21 GMT
Forexyard Daily Forex research
27/Aug - Technical News


EUR/USD The pair is now floating around 1.3670 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1.3850/1.3360 move. A break beyond that level will unleash a bullish move to the 1.3720 level. If the pair will be shy of the break than a correction move will be imminent. GBP/USD The cable is in the midst of strong uptrend and the hourlies are starting to become oversold. The 4 Hour chart is showing a second bearish cross on the slow stochastic and the dailies support the bearish notion. There are signals of a bearish correction that could take the pair to 2.0000 to the next move. USD/JPY After bottoming at 112.00, the pair is going back to its bullish formation. There is a two day consolidation at the 116.

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Sunday,  26 August 2007,  02:17 GMT
GCI Forex Research by FX Research Desk
Weekly market recap, week ahed, and schedule


The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.3660 level and was supported around the $1.3450 level. The pair gained about 175 pips last week. Many traders believe the Fed will lower the federal funds target rate by 25bps or 50bps before the next FOMC meeting on 18 September. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Dodd met with Fed boss Bernanke and Treasury chief Paulson. Bernanke is said to have told Dodd the Fed will “use all tools available” to counter the current liquidity crisis. Buba reported the ECB’s monetary policy remains “expansively oriented.” The German government sees H2 2007 growth accelerating. The ECB affirmed the monetary policy stance that Trichet promoted earlier this month meaning a rate hike next month is likely.

• EUR
• JPY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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Monday,  20 August 2007,  02:49 GMT
GCI Forex Research by FX Research Desk
Weekly market recap, week ahead, and schedule


The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested bids around the $1.3360 level and was capped around the $1.3705 level. The pair lost about 190 pips last week. The Fed lowered the discount rate by +50bps and “judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably.” Most traders now see a 25bps or 50bps cut in the Fed funds target rate no later than the FOMC’s next meeting on 18 September. A move to raise the cap on assets held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be required. ECB’s Trichet and Weber talked up improving liquidity conditions in credit markets. US$ Libor traded above the federal funds target rate last week, evidencing ongoing credit market nervousness.

• EUR
• JPY, CNY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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Sunday,  12 August 2007,  16:04 GMT
GCI Forex Research
Weekly market recap, week ahead, and schedule


The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested bids around the $1.3640 level and was capped around the $1.3840 level. The pair lost about 80 pips last week. The FOMC kept the fed funds rate at 5.25% and reported “Although the downside risks to growth have increased somewhat, the FOMC's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected.” The ECB injected €95 billion to support the markets on account of subprime contagion and BNP Paribas suspended three asset-backed securities firms. The Fed injected $24 billion via repos on Thursday, an indication it will assure liquidity conditions remain sufficient, and added another US$ 19 billion on Friday.

• EUR
• YEN/CNY
• GBP
• CHF
• CAD
• AUD
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